MUMBAI: Equity benchmarks may remain choppy with a negative bias in the week ahead in the run up to the April series futures and options (F&O) expiry on Thursday. The outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting, developments in Europe, where the credit crisis in Greece threatens to spread, and the January-March earnings of some top companies will decide the trend, brokers said.

“Investors are likely to be cautious as the market is at a two-year high. We could see more of profit-booking than fresh purchases at these levels,” said Jitendra Panda, senior vice president, Motilal Oswal Securities.

“We expect the Nifty to be in the range of 5200-5300 at expiry.” On Friday, the Nifty closed at 5304.

The US Fed is widely expected to keep the key short-term funds rate steady at a range of 0% to 0.25% during the two-day meeting that ends on Wednesday. Brokers said global markets will closely watch statements from the US Fed on the economic revival there and inflation.

Analysts said the F&O segment is pointing to a cautious outlook in the short-term.

“The fact that rollover in futures is happening at par (to the spot) is an indication that the mood is cautious... In a bull market, rollovers in futures happen at a premium,” said Dipen Shah, senior vice president-PCG, Kotak Securities.

Shares of Reliance Industries may weaken after the company’s net profit for the March quarter was lower than market expectations.

“The market was expecting profits in the range of Rs 4,900-5,000 crore, so it was a bit of disappointment. The stock could react negatively in the coming week amid volatility,’’ said an analyst with a leading broking firm. The company recorded a net profit Rs 4,710 crore for the quarter.

Sterlite Industries, Maruti Suzuki, Idea Cellular, Bank of Baroda, LIC housing Finance, Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Capital, ABB, and IDFC are among the top companies scheduled to announce their results this week. Earnings of Idea Cellular, which is the first telecom company to announce March quarter results, will be closely watched, as investors will get a sense of the impact of lower tariffs on profitability.

“The revenue growth will be affected as the full impact of the tariff cuts will come into effect in this quarter numbers. Also the volume growth will not be exciting as last quarter the growth was exceptional in terms of volume,” said an analyst with a brokerage.